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<br /> Page 2 of 12 <br />Transit Operations Assumptions for FY2020 <br />There are no increases or decreases in service levels planned for FY2020. Under that <br />assumption, the operating statistics for COASTER, SPRINTER, BREEZE, and FLEX have <br />been updated from FY2019 to reflect the respective modal weekday, Saturday, and Sunday <br />schedules, inclusive of special event, school and holiday service for FY2020. LIFT is an on - <br />demand service; therefore, the average weekday, Saturday, and Sunday year -to-date <br />operating statistics for FY2019 were used to forecast the service levels for FY2020. <br /> <br />The process for establishing the upcoming year service plan begins in February, with staff <br />compiling and reviewing historic service levels and ridership. Upon approval by the Executive <br />Director, the forecasts are provided to city managers and the Board of Directors for review in <br />April and provided to the Marketing, Service Planning, and Business Development Committee <br />in May. The cost associated with the proposed services are calculated after service <br />assumptions have been approved based on contractual agreements that NCTD has or will <br />negotiate with private sector contractors and public partners. The costs are then included in <br />the annual Operating Budget. <br /> <br />Ridership Assumptions <br />For all modes, forecasted ridership is based on the percent change in average actual ridership <br />by day type and month between calendar year 2017 and 2018. It includes a 4.7% decrease <br />which was estimated by SANDAG based on the fare changes that were approved in FY2019 <br />and expected to be implemented within the first quarter of FY2020. <br /> <br />Table 1 Proposed Operating Statistics and Ridership FY2020 <br />Mode <br />Proposed Operating Statistics and Ridership FY2020 <br />Vehicle <br />Revenue <br />Miles <br />Total Miles <br />Vehicle <br />Revenue <br />Hours <br />Total <br />Hours Ridership <br />COASTER 274,559 288,253 9,760 10,264 1,374,894 <br />SPRINTER 518,645 520,061 23,477 24,564 2,280,670 <br />BREEZE 5,163,458 5,861,730 430,965 464,136 6,173,873 <br />FLEX 305,392 328,197 16,918 17,930 30,219 <br />LIFT 1,708,422 2,034,560 103,779 127,999 172,877 <br />Total 7,970,476 9,032,801 584,898 644,894 10,032,533 <br /> <br />FY2018 Actuals and FY2019 and FY2020 Projected Comparisons <br />As stated above, the FY2020 operating statistics and ridership projections are derived from <br />analyzing actual ridership trends between FY2016 and FY2019, resulting in slight changes in <br />the year over year comparisons. Further adjustments are made for events such as potential <br />service enhancements or reductions, potential fare adjustments, and other factors such as <br />actual work days or impacts on holidays falling on a servi ce day. For FY2020, there are three <br />(3) irregularities to note: <br /> <br />1. Fare adjustments have been approved which will result in a short-term loss of ridership <br />estimated at 4.7%; <br />2. FY2020 has four (4) holidays operating with a Saturday schedule, compared to zero (0) <br />in FY2019; and